Forecast thinking (way of seeing the future by accumulating current status analysis)
Canojo smiles while saying “Hey, it’s been four years since we entered.”
Kale said “Yeah … yeah, I got a contract again today, I will be achieving this month as well.”
“You can meet at the end of the month, do not you?”
“Actually, I was called to a dinner party by my boss’s association,” Kale said.
As usual, the conversation of two people stops like this. As a college student, I became a member of society, Kanojo to Kyoto, Kale to Tokyo. It is the third year since I joined the company with a new graduate, and my work has been going well for the first time. Because of long distance, two people can meet in about once a month, going back and forth in Tokyo or Kyoto. I respect each other and I am thinking about marriage in the future. The problem is that you will always fight if you meet. Well, how would you solve the problem of this young long distance couple?
- Either one changes job and two people live in the same land
- Increase the frequency of dating and meet in Nagoya every time
- Create a child and get married now
The thought circuits of those who thought as described above are “Forecast thinking (way of seeing the future through accumulation of current status analysis)”. Either one of them has to endure the present life, to compromise, to resolve the problem by looking only now, either feel dissatisfied or eventually become unhappy with each other.
Backcast thinking (backcasting)
On the other hand, how to solve fight in “backcasting thinking (backcasting)”? A person who engages in jobs imagining and creating the future may have heard of backcasting thoughts at one time. In general, “Backcast thinking is described as planning a backward calculated service for the anticipated future society, depicting the ideals of the future, to clarify the paths to the project and future to be addressed and to act,” I came.
For example, it is the same as “imagine yourself as a goal, set goals, and make action plans for your goals”. Indeed it’s that people are consciously doing. No, are not the projects of the world doing so much? If so, you should be able to do it, past and many times, backcasting workshops and projects of conceptual methods have been implemented with companies, but unfortunately, it has become quite frequently “rice cake drawn in a picture” To get away.
About a year ago when I was scolded “Why!?”, I met Dr. Hidemitsu Ishida (representative of Earth village laboratory), a pioneer of backcast thinking. Mr. Ishida said, “It is a big mistake to create an optimal service and a new business if you do back-up by imagining the ideals of the future.” In addition, “Backcasting introduced on the net is almost wrong,” I was dismayed. So what is the original backcasting? I decided to learn again from Professor Ishida.
Actually, the example of the long distance romantic couple at the beginning is the “subject” that Mr. Ishida made at the future design workshop the other day. (However, the couple ‘s conversation is my delusions.
Mr. Ishida needs “Backcasting thinking based on constraints” to solve the problems of these young people. Considering the happiness of the two in the medium to long term, considering the future based on constraints. Without this constraint we can not draw a nice future.
Then, a solution example for “getting a fight by meeting” by backcasting thinking is as follows.
(As a constraint) living in Kyoto and Tokyo respectively, active in the workplace,
- In the future, we will talk about the days when the two of us live together or the day we may get married someday
- In the future, if you plan to set up a house somewhere, when do you want to talk about where you want to build?
- In the future, we will talk about the way people work and how to live how they want to be
Discuss the desirable future like these. And, as a way to enjoy from the present,
- Consult the ideal lifestyle or participate in an event close to that style
- If I go on a date trip I will go for a walk in the city where I’d like to live together in the future
- Consult with your boss how to work in the future, plan a dinner party not to introduce other people
I see. This may cause the fight to disappear.
(Saying that they live in Kyoto and Tokyo, respectively), it is not a patience or a compromise, but also “what is the idea that you can spend excitingly and excitement” with the “constraints” of their own environment is the essence of backcast thinking Professor Ishida says. If we solve the problem of two people by backcast thinking, it is a major premise that “thinking without constraints” of Kyoto and Tokyo long distance, and then it is most important to lead to “enjoyable actions and solutions” It is an important point.
However, Dr. Ishida’s example is “Elementary Edition” of practice of acquiring a backcast thinking circuit. The subject constraint is a single, but in real world constraints are multi (multiple constraints mix complicatedly with various people). So practicing backcasting in real society is very difficult and requires training using everyday events.
Let’s replace the problems of long distance couples with our real society. Professor Ishida, especially as a constraint condition, is a community and individual relationship with the natural environment (water, energy, natural resources, etc.). The resources of the earth including water are finite. When all the earthling people raise the mass consumption type life like developed countries like to the same standard of living, if it continues and expands, resources are exhausted without a while. Based on the limited resource environment of the earth on the basis of the constraint conditions, from the viewpoint that there are individuals on the community that coexists and circulates with the finite nature, the current “dependent lifestyle (mass production / consumption There are lots of gaps between the present and the future when we aim to shift from “expansion” to “self-reliant lifestyle”, and opportunities for business and service to solve “gap” Professor Ishida emphasizes that there are lots of lurks.
Details of the workshop cooperated by Professor Ishida are introduced in detail in the implementation report by Mr. Tamurakai.
If you can master the backcast thinking, you should be able to use it not only for business but also for challenges such as challenges like local creation such as ‘Nippon Fallen fallen to nursery schools !!!’ and local creation.
Backcast thinking thinking by familiar events
By the way, the backcasting thought I am now is about the future of my newly born son (3 months full).
He has a huge giant in his eyebrows by nature. I do not have any problem since my parents are satisfied with five things and I am an unconditionally cute son, but for now I can not say yet that “that huge, very cool!” It seems like a great Buddha, so whenever we worship with my wife ‘Arigato and ~’ in front of my son like worshiping every day. But how will hooks affect him in the future when friends can do, enter elementary school, when it comes to puberty? Does not it become a complex? Negative scenes just come up now.
I would like to solve this with backcasting thinking. (It is a surgical operation of general anesthesia) Is it impossible to exclude hookrooms, is it a forecast thinking, or “Can not take a hooked award” can be a constraint? Will it be backcasting to convert hooks from “Complex” to “Symbol” by raising them as Olympic medalists? It was difficult to understand though it was understood. The training of the backcast thinking is still going on.